Australian Sports Entertainment

Saturday, January 17, 2009

These off-season odds should be music to your ears, by Cameron Noakes - The Age - 16th January 2009

I once dated a girl who told me the world was forever singing New York, New York, and it was on constant replay within the bowels of everyone's subconscious.

She would say it only took a couple of bars for it to rise from that cavernous place and head to the surface and before you knew it you were singing: "Start spreading the news. . ."

I told her that this was preposterous because everyone was secretly tapping their toes to an eternal mix of Sympathy for the Devil and all you needed was an "ooooh-ooooh" or two before you were screaming "Pleased to meet you. . ."

We stopped seeing each other after that.

But I bring this up because it seems to me Australian rules, like Sympathy for the Devil (or New York, New York if you want to take her side) is also a broken record constantly revolving in the ineffable bits of most Victorians' brains.

And I guess it is probably the same for South Australians, Tasmanians and the Perth-lings, however, I'm sure the music is more Billy Joel in South Australia and Meatloaf in WA.

So with the tennis upon us, one-day cricket here, and the round-ball rolling to a thrilling climax, it is not really surprising that my email inbox is filling up with footy chat.

No one is saying: "Shall we take the $5.30 on Rafa or the $4 on Andy Murray or even the $3.55 on Roger (Betfair odds) to win the Australian Open?"

No one is saying: "The $3.35 on South Africa to beat Australia ($1.42) in the one-day internationals is good value." And they're not saying: "Let's take the $4.60 on J. P. Duminy to be the highest run scorer for South Africa in today's game?" They are also not interested in the $4.30 on Ricky Ponting to make the most runs for Australia.

They're not even saying: "Let's jump on the $1.72 for Manchester United to take out the English Premier League?" - which seems more than likely now after the Red Devils' big week.

No. All I get in the month of January is Brownlow Medal speculation and I'm drawn to it like a moth to the flame. The current Brownlow market has Gary Ablett at $9 and Chris Judd as second favourite at $11, and, barring injury, it is unlikely these serial vote-getters will be any longer during the season.

Lance Franklin ($13) and Jon Brown ($17) are next on most bookmakers' lines (remember, forwards don't win it) and Ben Cousins is at a ridiculously short $34 ($26 at TAB Sportsbet).

But my mates and I don't really look at the favourites; this is the time of year when you put a sneaky tenner on a 100-1 shot or better so you can brag about it on Brownlow night when your man is sitting on 20 votes with three rounds to go.

Shop around carefully because the odds vary greatly. Select a midfielder whose team will finish in the top four. Keep the bets small. And thoughts? My Hawthorn mates are telling me Brad Sewell (16 votes last year despite missing games because of a shoulder injury) is worth a nibble at $101 with TAB Sportsbet ($41 at Sportingbet Australia).

And expect Nick Dal Santo ($151 at Sportingbet Australia/$81 at Centrebet) to return to his eye-catching form this year. The Bulldogs' Ryan Griffen at $101 also fits the criteria.

And remember, the footy is three weeks away so "start spreading the news". (Credit: The Age)

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